Improving Short-Term QPF Using Geostationary Satellite All-Sky Infrared Radiances: Real-Time Ensemble Data Assimilation and Forecast during the PRECIP 2020 and 2021 Experiments

The Prediction of Rainfall Extremes Campaign In the Pacific (PRECIP) aims to improve our understanding of extreme rainfall processes in the East Asian summer monsoon. A convection-permitting ensemble-based data assimilation and forecast system (the PSU WRF-EnKF system) was run in real time in the summers of 2020–21 in advance of the 2022 field campaign, assimilating all-sky infrared (IR) radiances from the geostationary Himawari-8 and GOES-16 satellites, and providing 48-h ensemble forecasts every day for weather briefings and discussions. This is the first time that all-sky IR data assimilation has been performed in a real-time forecast system at a convection-permitting resolution for several seasons. Compared with retrospective forecasts that exclude all-sky IR radiances, rainfall predictions are statistically significantly improved out to at least 4–6 h for the real-time forecasts, which is comparable to the time scale of improvements gained from assimilating observations from the dense ground-based Doppler weather radars. The assimilation of all-sky IR radiances also reduced the forecast errors of large-scale environments and helped to maintain a more reasonable ensemble spread compared with the counterpart experiments that did not assimilate all-sky IR radiances. The results indicate strong potential for improving routine short-term quantitative precipitation forecasts using these high-spatiotemporal-resolution satellite observations in the future.Significance StatementDuring the summers of 2020/21, the PSU WRF-EnKF data assimilation and forecast system was run in real time in advance of the 2022 Prediction of Rainfall Extremes Campaign In the Pacific (PRECIP), assimilating all-sky (clear-sky and cloudy) infrared radiances from geostationary satellites into a numerical weather prediction model and providing ensemble forecasts. This study presents the first-of-its-kind systematic evaluation of the impacts of assimilating all-sky infrared radiances on short-term qualitative precipitation forecasts using multiyear, multiregion, real-time ensemble forecasts. Results suggest that rainfall forecasts are improved out to at least 4–6 h with the assimilation of all-sky infrared radiances, comparable to the influence of assimilating radar observations, with benefits in forecasting large-scale environments and representing atmospheric uncertainties as well.

From Non‐Believer to Believer: What Leads People to Change Their Climate Views

Studies have highlighted the political, economic, and psychological factors in the debate over anthropogenic climate change—a hegemony approach—but have rarely focused on the stories and possibilities of people's transitions from climate change non‐believer to climate change believer. Based on publicly accessible narratives, this study examines the stories of those who have switched from non‐believer to believer—a narrative approach—and the dilemmas involved in those switches. Our investigation illuminates that a transition to climate change believer is a cultural and moral matter based on changing social relations of knowledge and what people regard as ignorable. We find that narratives of transition commonly describe interrelated shifts in three social relational factors: the narrator's notions of self, material reality, and justice. We term this contextualized transformative experience a relational rupture. Our narrative approach thus contextualizes climate change denialism within a person's web of social relations, not the hegemony of climate change communication alone. Moreover, we suggest that, since public debate and polarization on scientific topics such as climate change, vaccination, and COVID‐19 are socially situated, they may potentially be socially bridged. [ FROM AUTHOR]